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The two quarter down space clothing industry Co. inflection point still need to wait

China "First Lady" Peng Liyuan with President Xi Jinping outbound, wearing the clothing of the "Made in China", setting off a mass of domestic clothing brand sought after. The secondary market, Young entrepreneurs five days rose to 46.2%; daily limit of high-end clothing listed company the Lancy shares and shares on March 25 and 26, respectively Caesar ...... a sudden, has been cold for a long time the brand apparel company suddenly jumped to become a hot market.

In the second quarter, the apparel industry could continue this momentum? From the point of view of the broker, I am afraid that may not be so optimistic. The idea that the "First Lady" whirlwind drive the local apparel sector outperformed the broader market downturn in the short-term terminal and the performance of listed companies, but the incident did not significantly help. However, the medium to long term, the new leaders of the anti-corruption campaign, personally support the development of national brands will bring a positive and far-reaching impact on the industry as a whole. The second quarter, although further downside of the apparel sector has been limited, but the inflection point is still waiting for the terminal needs to improve.

Sector underperformed the broader market in the first quarter

According to related statistics, in just the last quarter, the SWS textile and apparel industry index rose 6%, the excess return of -1.42% relative to all A shares underperformed the broader market. Textile manufacturing sub-sectors absolute return of 9.66%, 2.24% relative gains. The sub-sectors with the outside need to bottoming warmer January-February exports increased dramatically to 30%, a significant rebound bottom; absolute return of 1.63% of the textile apparel sub-sectors, the relative returns of -5.79%. The sub-sectors by the end-consumer depression continues to stock lower-than-expected progress factors, far underperformed the broader market.

According to insiders, brand clothing facing online and offline channels are sluggish, resulting in damage to the brand image, corporate profit margins continued to decline. The line poor quality of the channel terminal, a serious backlog of inventory, relying on discounts to the inventory, brand-damaging price system, serious damage to the brand image; online channels to fight traffic to grab share at the expense of the long-term value of the brand, many high-end brand positioning more and more grass-roots, severe compression of future price increases, there is a gross profit margin of landslide risk. "Great Wall Securities analyst Yao Wenqi expressed.

By the macro-economic downturn and other factors, this year, the country's total retail sales slowdown, analysts expect annual consumption continued weakness. But analysts also pointed out that there will be three reasons constitute support the overall stability of the consumer. Including: the reform of the household registration reform to raise the minimum income has a positive impact on consumption; economic trend in the bottom of the L-consumption remained after cycle characteristics; the third quarter of this year, inflation is a moderate increase in the positive consumption. It also makes the apparel industry, the downside is limited, but the short term, difficult catalyst.

Maintain the industry "recommended" rating

It is understood that the 2013 order growth will be showing a down quarter by quarter characteristics, autumn and winter order will not significantly better than the spring and summer orders will be. Little confidence in the economic recovery, the pressure on the stock has not been fully discharged, the dealer ordering more cautious; On the other hand, listed companies are not brave enough to dealer orders pressure is applied to ride out the storm, but to help dealers improve profitability , take the initiative to reduce the factory discount. Industry insiders estimate that the autumn and winter 2013, the growth rate reached the bottom, no further decline in 2014, but still waiting for the industry inflection point, maintain the apparel industry "recommended" rating.

In this context, the fine to take a clear brand positioning, differentiated high quality clothing retail company, after all, the choice of investors. According to this line of thinking, you can focus Kanu Di Road, Souyute and Pathfinder. Pathfinder is expected in the first quarter of 2013 net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies profit of about 57 million -6100 million, an increase of approximately 40-50%. In addition, the first quarter of the two companies also achieve growth.

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