The survey shows that the domestic cultivation of cotton area continued to decline, a record low in 10 years. Experts said that the cotton acreage reduction means that the textile industry raw materials tends to tighten, business inventories after the processing of raw materials will be able to sell a good price. After a two-year industry downturn, the cotton textile industry in the spring seems to come
China Cotton Association recently showed that domestically grown cotton area continued to decline, a record low in 10 years. Experts said that the cotton acreage reduction means that the textile industry raw materials tends to be tight, raw materials for the textile industry, cotton textile processing business inventories after processing, can sell a good price. After two years of industry downturn, the cotton textile industry in the spring seems to come.
Decline in the enthusiasm of the cotton-growing area caused atrophy
According to the China Cotton Association survey, the 2013 cotton area is expected to decline 6.8%, to 6818 acres, this is the first time in decades below the 7000 mu. The most significant decline in the Yellow River Basin, especially in Henan, has been a major cotton producing province into a small cotton producing province. Previously, experts predict that the year 2013/14 the U.S. upland cotton acreage is expected to 9.8 million acres, a decrease of 19% compared to 2012/13.
It is understood that the domestic acreage dropped mainly in the Mainland, especially in Henan, Shandong, Hebei and other traditional cotton-producing regions. Experts said, mainly due to cotton production work time-consuming, labor shortage in rural areas, small-scale peasant cotton cultivation methods in the past challenges, but also more difficult to scale production, farmers in cotton enthusiasm greatly reduced acreage in recent years has been in a continuing downward trend .
East Asia Futures analyst Xu Zhou believes that the year 2013 domestic cotton acreage is expected to decline, the main reason is that the relative income of cotton on the decline. Although the state for two consecutive years the introduction of the purchasing and storage policies to ensure that the cotton-growing income of farmers, food lowest price in the overall parity of the cotton in the fall, so the planting intentions of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River Basin decline was particularly pronounced. In addition, in 2011 and in March 2012, the state issued a temporary purchasing and storage policy, still not officially announced this year, also affected the enthusiasm of farmers planting.
Global oversupply of cotton will improve
The global cotton is still in a loose pattern, the market 2013 annual global cotton production is expected to decline, the consumer will also have to pick up, so the pattern of excess global cotton supply and demand will be improved.
Global cotton production and consumption according to the Cotlook Cotlook release of the February forecast balance sheet for 2013/14 world cotton production was 24,299,000 tons, 1.904 million tons compared with the year reduced; 23.154 million tons of global consumption, adjusted by 487,000 tons . Which are harbingers of the serious overcapacity situation will improve in the next year.
Shanghai interim analysts see the thunder from overseas consumption in Europe and the United States in 2013 to continue slow recovery in the textile and garment export situation is still not optimistic, but compared to the situation in 2012 or better. Expected that the textile and apparel exports two together or reached 273.25 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year growth picked up to about 8%, this figure is still at a low level in the past 10 years. From domestic consumption, the Chinese new year macro-control policies will focus on expanding domestic demand, promote urbanization, the textile consumer demand year-on-year increase.
Specific to the domestic and international cotton prices, experts generally believe that the improvement of the supply and demand pattern, to some extent positive global cotton; domestic cotton prices are subject to high inventory and policy control, it is difficult rebounded sharply.
Xu Zhou said that the world cotton stocks are mainly concentrated in China, foreign cotton supply and demand is not particularly generous. From the trend point of view, domestic and international cotton prices have been gradually out of the bottom, especially the United States cotton in the past more than four months rose by more than 30%. Consider the domestic cotton throw Reserve and quota policies, domestic demand for imported cotton is still increasing, the U.S. cotton is still upward momentum; while the domestic is subject to the policy, the upside is limited.
Cotton textile industry in spring around the corner?
Reporters recently learned from the Agriculture Department of the autonomous region, Xinjiang cotton acreage this year as China's largest cotton-producing regions of 1539.8 hectares, representing a decrease of 106.2 million mu of cotton acreage reduction means that the textile industry raw materials tends to tighten, for textile industry, cotton textile processing business inventories of raw materials processed can sell a good price, after a two-year industry downturn, the cotton textile industry in the spring is coming.
According to Customs statistics, in February, China's textile and apparel exports reached $ 16.48 billion, an increase of 69.7% in January-February, China's textile and apparel exports 41.17 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 31.8%, Xinjiang cotton textile industry said , the main factors affecting the cotton textile industry is the consumer market and export trade factors, and the reduction in the trade of textile and apparel exports cotton textile industry in recent years has been the main reason for the downturn, mainly to Europe and the United States in the world economy to pick up state consumption on the rise, domestic exports of cotton textile manufacturing enterprises will gradually growth.
At the beginning of March, * ST new agricultural transformation most profitable holding subsidiary of the new agricultural cotton pulp announced to resume production, new agricultural cotton pulp net profit of 44.18 million yuan in 2010, but the advent of the cotton textile industry in the winter of 2011 plus on operating factors, new agricultural cotton pulp loss of $ 3.8 billion, was discontinued in October 2012. According to the company, in the start production is cotton pulp market and raw materials reserves, before deciding to start production.
In addition to the new rural cotton pulp was decided this month to start production from the first batch of 38 tons of cotton yarn sold in Zhejiang, Xinjiang, another the cotton processing Xinsaigufen (600,540, stock it), but also at the beginning of this month large-scale recruitment Tenders expected very soon will start production this, the cotton textile industry sources said, is expected by the second half of this year, Depression two years of cotton textile industry is expected to rise into the period.
Policy perspective, the cotton textile industry as the Corps of industrial development of pillar industries and traditional industries, the Corps of cotton spinning enterprises to the implementation stage subsidies, and guide the cotton company in the fourth quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013 to the rolling supply of cotton spinning enterprises production with cotton, and the relaxation of the settlement period, given the divisions cotton five thousandths of interest subsidies, cotton spinning enterprises to ease liquidity pressure. In addition, still in power, transportation and other aspects of cotton textile enterprises support.